The Forecast as a Basis for Autumn Decision-Making

For many companies, the week before the summer break is a natural time to review the current position. How has the year developed so far, and what does that indicate for the rest of the year? At the same time, it is common for forecasting itself to be postponed. Partly because time is limited, and partly because it is often seen as a task that requires more work than can be managed just before a holiday. That is understandable. But there is also a clear downside to waiting.

Start the autumn with a clear basis for decision-making

When forecasting is postponed, August effectively begins with creating a clear picture of the current position. Only then can decisions be made. That slows things down.

An alternative is to have an updated view of how the year is actually developing before the summer break. Not as a fully detailed forecast in every respect, but as a sufficiently clear basis for taking action when work resumes.

The year-to-date results are already half the forecast

At the halfway point of the year, much of the uncertainty has already been removed. The actual results from the first months of the year provide a concrete basis that is often more relevant than the assumptions behind the original budget. This means the forecasting process does not need to start from a blank document, but from how the business has actually developed. In practice, it is about identifying variances.

How do revenue and costs differ from plan?
What looks different from expected?
Are there any changes that will affect the rest of the year?

When the forecast is built on this picture, it becomes both faster to produce and more useful as a basis for decision-making.

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Make forecasting part of your performance review

One reason forecasts are often postponed is that they are treated as a separate project. Something to build from scratch rather than adjust, which raises the threshold.

In practice, it often works better to see forecasting as part of ongoing performance monitoring. When actual results are updated, the outlook should be adjusted too. This reduces the need for larger one-off efforts and helps keep the forecast relevant.

Tools and working methods matter. In manual environments, such as Excel, forecasting often becomes a separate exercise. Figures must be updated, versions managed and supporting data rebuilt.

When the work is instead based on up-to-date figures in a setting where forecasting and performance monitoring are connected, updating the forecast becomes much easier.

It also shifts the focus from updating figures to understanding what they mean.

A simple review goes a long way

A common concern before the summer break is that there is not enough time to produce a “proper” forecast. But in many cases, that is not what is needed. The key is to create a clear picture of the current position. Start with the results from the first half of the year and review a few basic questions:

Is performance in line with plan?
Where are the biggest variances?
What needs to be adjusted going forward?
What needs to be followed up after the summer?

Answering these questions rarely takes much time, but it can make a significant difference to how the autumn begins.